What Will Climate Change Look Like in the Future? New Interactive Map Shows Us

Screenshot of the interactive map - this setting has the climate change from 6000 years ago until 2079. Credit: University of Cincinnati

An exciting new interactive map was unveiled last week, created by University of Cincinnati geography professor Tomasz Stepinski, that allows users to compare the climates of places all over the world. It uses meteorological data from over five decades and from over 50,000 weather stations around the world to display where and how much our climate has changed anywhere on our planet. The part that's even more interesting, in my opinion, is the ability to have a visual representation of what parts of the world will experience the most climate change over the next 50 years.

The future climate change filter - prediction of climate change until 2079. Brown and white areas will be affected the most and green area affected the least. Credit: University of Cincinnati

The user can clearly see the areas of our planet that are predicted to be affected most by climate change (the white and brown areas) making them realize that there are places on our planet that are being affected in different and worse ways by climate change than others are. Stepinski also hopes that his interactive map can kickstart a lot of research, not only about climate change but also looking into the climate diversity that we have on our planet from one location to another. Users can easily see what locations have contrasting climates and what locations have similar climates from anywhere on the globe.

The plot that pops up when you click anywhere on the interactive map. Credit: University of Cincinnati

Another unique aspect of this tool is that it not only includes temperature, but also precipitation. Many people only consider temperature and global warming when they think about climate change. However, our planet's climate is comprised of many different factors besides temperature with precipitation being another predominant one. In fact, if you click anywhere on land on the interactive map it will display a nice plot of temperature vs. precipitation, with two different lines representing the two years that you're comparing.

This map project also made an appearance in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, highlighting the impacts that it could have on the meteorology sector.

Hopefully, this new visual representation of climate change in the past and into the future will help more people realize how quickly our world's climate is changing right now and that something has to be done as soon as possible so we can slow down our changing climate. Obviously, science has proved that the Earth's climate is constantly changing, which is normal, but not over this short of a time period. The climate of a certain location usually changes over a time scale such as a half-million years, but when these climate changes start happening in around 100 years or less, we are venturing into uncharted territory since our planet has never experienced anything like this before.

Finally, the climate change predictor tool of this map will hopefully be able to also help with the planning for extreme weather phenomena. The places that are predicted to see the greatest impacts from climate change and be the most negatively impacted by it are also the places where we could see the most extreme weather happening. More hurricanes could hit these locations, or they will be more prone to flooding, or they could be more impacted by more tornadoes in the future depending on how much their climate is predicted to change and where they are located. Knowing these predictions ahead of time can be helpful for emergency managers to plan for extreme weather events that are more likely to happen in the future. 

Credit: National Climate Assessment

Additionally, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has partnered with the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies and many other organizations to produce the National Climate Assessment. They have been producing this report on a yearly basis for the past several years, but I believe the 2014 version has the most information and the most modern/user-friendly website. Littered with easy to find information and eye-popping images and graphs, this website is filled with everything you need to know about climate change in the United States.

Prediction of how much the temperatures will rise with the higher emissions model. Credit: National Climate Assessment

I want to focus on the "future climate" section of the website where map projections/models show what parts of the United States will be affected by certain aspects of climate change. Throughout the United States, by 2070 it appears that if we reduce the number of emissions we release, we are estimated to increase temperatures by 4-5 degrees Fahrenheit compared to the period from 1970-1999. However, temperatures could increase as much as 8-9 degrees Fahrenheit for the majority of the United States if we continue to increase global emissions.

Green areas show a positive precipitiation change and brown areas show a negative precipitation change with the higher emissions model. Credit: National Climate Assessment

Precipitation will also change in terms of where and how much of it falls. With increased emissions, winters and springs are projected to be wetter for the northern half of the United States and drier for the southern half of the U.S. compared to the 1970-1999 period. Summers are predicted to have less precipitation falling from the sky for the majority of the United States contributing to more drought problems.

The northeast coastline is expected to see between 0 and 2 feet of sea level rise per century and you can see the sea level rising in Philadelphia with the graph on the right. Credit: National Climate Assessment

Another interesting aspect of this website is that you can go region by region throughout the country, where each region has its own webpage with information about how climate change will specifically affect that part of the country. For instance, in the Northeast, scientists say that heat waves, heavy downpours, and sea level rise (causing coastal and river flooding) will be the impacts of climate change that people living in the Northeast will be most impacted by. Climate change related events will contribute to stressing the existing infrastructure to a point where it needs to be replaced and more hurricanes could impact the Northeast over the next century.

Now that these great visual tools and expansive resources are being created, they just need to get out there so more people can see them and understand them. Hopefully, these tools and resources will help to educate more people that the impacts of climate change are much closer than many think.

The Risk of Climate Change on Our Wallets

Credit: Cirm.in

As with many things in life, risks are associated with decisions. Risk of failure. Risk of lost money. Risk of lost lives. Similarly, there's a risk in preparing for the weather of the future. Weather risk management, an option within the department of meteorology here at Penn State, deals with the business side of meteorology. Weather risk managers need to be able to manage the financial

consequences that can occur after bad weather and natural disasters. Insurance companies, food companies such as MARS candy, and many other companies are hiring weather risk managers so that they can be better prepared for the future and make sound financial decisions.

However, these events are usually short-term, only lasting a few days or possibly up to a week. For instance, they would try to figure out the risks associated with a hurricane that was going to impact the coast. But now, climate scientists and meteorologists should be looking at the broader picture and considering where climate change fits into the puzzle. Decisions need to be made as to what needs to be done in order to prepare properly financially so that our economy can withstand the effects climate change will have on it over many years to come.

Climate Change Risk Management Steps -
Credit: Four Twenty Seven

Last year, for the first time, a majority of powerful global investors recognized the financial risks of climate change. A study by the Asset Owner Disclosure Project found that 40% of asset owners and only 6% of asset managers had scored a zero for managing and disclosing climate risks. This indicated that the majority of the market gets it - something needs to be done now in order to be best prepared for what climate change will bring us tomorrow. The report concluded that “the scales have tipped," since 60% of asset owners are now acting in some way to do something about the climate risks they face.

Those that haven't jumped on board yet are being left behind and, in the case of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), facing lawsuits. The CBA is being sued for misleading shareholders over the risks climate change presents to their business interests. The claim argues that climate change causes financial risks to the bank, both as a business and to its customers, and they failed to report these risks to investors. This demonstrates an important shift in the world's understanding of climate change. A few years ago we would have been debating about the existence of climate change and if it is something we should actually be worrying about. Now that most of the world has come to accept that climate change is real, companies and banks are expected to think about the risks and outcomes associated with climate change and how that will impact the business and the consumer.

Energy efficient buildings - Credit: CMFE News

We can see businesses beginning to make smart decisions already by investing in sustainable developments and sustainable solutions. Buildings and transportation methods are becoming more energy efficient, better for the environment, and able to withstand the consequences that global warming may produce.

However, there are still the countries and people out there that don't have climate change anywhere on their radar since they don't think that it will be a problem that will affect them personally. For instance, many people who are saving for retirement aren't aware of a possible risk of a climate-induced financial crisis and therefore aren't allocating funds for this purpose just in case. Similarly, some countries have a very short-term approach, so they don't necessarily see the benefits of doing things today that might not benefit them until 25 or 30 years into the future.

If we take a look at some of the impacts that climate change has on our economies today we realize that the costs associated with extreme weather events are increasing. Hurricanes Harvey, Maria, and Irma are all now in the top five in terms of the costliest hurricanes on record. Climate scientists are fairly confident that climate change will cause an increase in the severity and possibly even the number of extreme weather events, creating even higher costs for natural disasters, such as hurricanes, moving forward.

Sea-level rise simulation - Credit: GLOBE-Net

Rising sea levels are another part of climate change that many cannot deny, so let's take a look at a study that estimates the cost of sea levels rising one meter. Low-lying coastal regions support 30% of the global population, and about this same chunk of the global economy. Even putting a portion of these coastal regions underwater would come with astronomically high financial costs. The study found that in the US, by 2050, more than $106 billion worth of existing coastal property could be below sea level and that future flood losses in major coastal cities around the world may exceed $1 trillion dollars per year as a consequence of sea level rise by 2050.

The economic impacts go on and on... including higher temperatures driving up electricity bills and contributing to droughts and coastal cities having to possibly relocate. The connection between the science and the economics of climate change is rather clear. Now, something just needs to be done about it.